The Human Cost of Tyranny in Iraqi Kurdistan: A Bayesian Dynamic Estimation

Ameen J & Bartlema, J

Paper to be submitted for presentation at the First French-Iraqi Mathematical Conference, Salahaddin University, Erbil, 14-18 November 2009

Keywords: Cost of Tyranny, Bayesian Dynamic Models, Leslie Matrix, Migration, Fertility rate, Immigration  

Abstract

         Over the past thirty years or so, Iraq was ruled through harsh dictatorship and its citizens were subjected to various inhuman acts of genocide, mass graves, relocation, anfal and migration all at massive scales.  The huge national wealth was used to curb progress.This paper attempts to formulate a dynamic Bayesian model based on a combination of models developed by one of the authors (Ameen) and the classically constructed Leslie Matrix approach from which various scenarios for the progression of the population of Iraq and Kurdistan Region starting from the census results of 1947 and 1957.  The latter are considered the latest years before the start of national unrest in Kurdistan Region for their reliability.  Profiles for each of fertility rates, migration, immigration and the impact of advances in technology will be used to generate scenarios for population estimates for the past 50 years and compared to the observed figure.